This war between Apple and Adobe is interesting. Flash has had a dominant presence on the web for years and for a long time was really the only option for creating a highly interactive and multimedia web experience. Javascript and browsers have matured and now AJAX sites lead the way for interactivity even though they don’t today offer the multimedia experience of Flash. But that is going to change with HTML5. Don’t be fooled, HTML5 won’t right away be able to match Flash but it will win. Maybe not the feature war but its going to win the distribution war because its an open standard, not controlled by a single company like Flash is with Adobe. The sea change that is going to hurt Flash is the move to mobile devices and other non-PC web experiences. Flash just hasn’t been able to get the distribution on new devices from the iPad & iPhone to other mobile phones, TVs, set top boxes, etc. Microsoft took a swing at Adobe with Silverlight but hasn’t done much damage. Strangely in this battle, Apple is going to prove more powerful. Are you really going to want your web site not to work on the iPad or iPhone. No way. That is an audience everyone is going to want and so Flash sites are going to suffer quickly. They already do. Adobe still makes some phenomenal products though so you wonder if Apple is creating this war to drive Adobe’s stock price down so it can ultimately buy it on the cheap. Or maybe they will force it down just enough for Microsoft to make a bid, who knows, and then go in for the kill on Flash. Interesting stuff nonetheless. I’m betting on HTML5, open just seems to always win on the web.